Another day, another billion-dollar defense contract that feels more like a Mad Lib than a finalized agreement. The Pentagon just awarded Lockheed Martin an $11.8 billion undefinitized contract to churn out 145 new F-35 fighter jets. Translation: They’re paying for jets now and hashing out the specifics later. Because who needs clarity when you can have… optimism?
(Source: Giphy)
In short, this deal funds “Lot 18,” which includes jets for the Air Force, Navy, Marines, and a handful of foreign buyers. Italy and Japan are even getting some tooling support to assemble their own aircraft, which feels a bit like asking IKEA to ship you a fighter jet kit. But again, the key detail here is that this contract is “undefinitized,” meaning terms like quantities and final costs are still TBD.
(Source: Breaking Defense)
In theory, the Pentagon will finalize the details by spring. But this is the same negotiation that was supposed to wrap up last year. For a program plagued by delays and budget overruns, “we’ll figure it out later” might as well be its tagline at this point.
But why now though? Well, Lockheed, it turns out, has been floating production costs out of its own pocket to keep the F-35 line moving while waiting for Congress and the Pentagon to sort out the funding. Yes, even the world’s largest defense contractor occasionally plays the role of cash-strapped startup. This contract is essentially a bridge loan to keep jets rolling off the assembly line—because nothing says “national security” like a company needing a quick infusion of taxpayer dollars to make payroll.
(Source: Giphy)
Adding a bit of zestiness to the mix, Elon Musk has recently taken aim at the F-35 program. As co-chair of the new “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), Musk has been loudly advocating for shifting resources from manned fighters to drones, calling the F-35 a waste of money and its “idiot” backers. Outgoing Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, however, has argued that the F-35 is still critical to U.S. defense. Yes, it’s over budget. Yes, it’s riddled with issues. But in a world where adversaries are investing heavily in stealth and air superiority, Kendall says it’s better to have a flawed F-35 than no F-35 at all.
Now if this feels like déjà vu, that’s because it is. The F-35 program has been a lightning rod for criticism since its inception, and yet it keeps chugging along, buoyed by a mix of sunk-cost fallacy and genuine strategic necessity. Watching this unfold is like tracking a TV show that’s five seasons in: you’re not sure if it’s still good, but you’ve come too far to stop now.
(Source: Defense Blog)
And then there’s the undefinitized contract itself—a perfect encapsulation of government spending. It’s the equivalent of committing to a mortgage without checking the interest rate. Sure, it’s all going to work out in the end (probably), but the lack of precision raises some eyebrows—especially for shareholders.
Now of course, only time will tell how smoothly this defense contract shakes out, but in the end here’s the takeaway: The Pentagon handed Lockheed $11.8 billion to keep the F-35 program alive while final contract terms remain up in the air. Billionaires are throwing shade, defense officials are in damage-control mode, and taxpayers are left wondering whether this is all part of the plan—or just another case of bureaucratic improv. But hey, at least it’s not going to Ukraine, amirite? Or so we think…
(Source: Giphy)
In the meantime, do what you will with this information and place your bets accordingly, friends. As always, stay safe and stay frosty! Until next time…
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Stocks.News does not hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.
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