After a Nightmare Year, Rivian Lowered Their Expectations… And The Stock Jumped 19%

Rivian’s 2024 wasn’t exactly a highlight reel. Imagine trying to post a year-in-review on TikTok when your stock’s down 40%, you’re losing $39,130 on each vehicle you sell, and you needed a $5.8 billion life raft from Volkswagen just to keep the lights on. But today? Rivian’s stock is up 19%, and they’re starting off 2025 with some hope.

Rivian managed to beat its own (recently lowered) delivery expectations in Q4, handing over 14,183 vehicles when analysts expected around 13,472. That’s a 42% jump from the previous quarter and the company’s best quarter in over a year. Sure, they lowered their projections back in October due to a pesky component shortage, but hey, beating lowered expectations still counts, right? For the year, Rivian delivered 51,579 vehicles… barely squeaking past the low end of their revised target. It’s not exactly groundbreaking news, but when you’re playing catch-up, any win feels big.

Several months ago, Rivian needed cash like a college kid needs instant ramen. And thanks to Volkswagen, they were able to get a joint venture worth $5.8 billion. This partnership was designed to share technology and cut costs, but it’s also a big, fat cash infusion. Without it, Rivian’s Q4 would’ve been another disappointment.

CEO RJ Scaringe has focused on renegotiating supplier contracts and streamlining operations to manage costs. These efforts are starting to show results, with the company on track to turn a gross profit in Q4. However, the path to profitability remains steep. In Q3, Rivian lost a staggering $39,130 per vehicle sold, up from $32,700 per vehicle in Q2, signaling that while progress is being made in some areas, reducing per-unit losses is still a mountain to climb.But hey, baby steps.

Investors are seeing hope. Today’s 19% stock jump is a nice change of pace after a brutal 2024 that saw shares lose 43% of their value. Rivian’s stock has clawed back some ground, now sitting above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Not to be “Johnny Raincloud” or anything, but shares are still down about 87% from their all time high. So there’s plenty of work to do.

And while delivery numbers are looking up, Rivian still has a lot of battles to win. Tesla, their main rival, just reported its first annual delivery decline and is trying to make outdated models seem fresh. Could Rivian swoop in and capitalize? Maybe, but that’s a long shot for now.

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