Apple has been like Wall Street’s favorite kid—you know, the one who always gets the biggest piece of cake at family gatherings (looking at you, Marcia Brady). Yeah I went way back in time for that one. But seriously, we’ve come to expect its stock to rise like clockwork every time Tim Cook sneezes on stage. 

But here we are, 25 days into September, and Apple’s stock is in unfamiliar territory—it’s in the red. Yup, Apple, the trillion-dollar behemoth, is losing ground, and we’re all trying to figure out why. Spoiler: it’s got a lot to do with the new iPhone 16 and China’s love-hate relationship with Cupertino.

Apple’s shiny new iPhone 16 launched with a lot of hype, but the demand? Well, it’s not exactly screaming “take my money” just yet. In fact, reports say demand for the iPhone 16 is trailing behind Wall Street’s high expectations. Taiwan-based Apple whisperer, Ming-Chi Kuo, estimates Apple sold 37 million units in the opening weekend, which sounds like a lot—until you realize it’s down nearly 13% from the iPhone 15’s launch.

China isn’t helping either. Competition is heating up faster than my iPhone after 30 minutes of Instagram scrolling. Huawei’s new foldable Mate XT is giving Apple a run for its money, and Chinese consumers are keeping their wallets closed. August data shows foreign smartphone sales in China dropped 12.7%, while overall sales in the market shot up 26.7%. Translation: the iPhone’s losing ground in the world’s biggest smartphone market, and it’s not pretty.

If you were hoping the iPhone 16 would pick up the slack, think again—MacBook sales aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard either. In fact, they’ve flatlined over the last quarter. Analysts are pointing fingers at the lack of new hardware, and honestly, they’re probably right. Everyone’s just sitting around waiting for the highly anticipated M4 Pro and M4 Max MacBooks to hit the shelves. Until that happens, Mac sales are about as thrilling as a three-hour PowerPoint presentation at work.

Hold up—some analysts aren’t hitting the panic button just yet. In fact, they’re kind of chill about the whole thing. Why? Two words: Apple Intelligence.

Sure, the iPhone 16 isn’t setting the world on fire, but Apple’s betting that its AI-powered future is going to be the real G. Apple Intelligence, the tech giant’s AI initiative, isn’t fully baked yet, but it’s coming. And some analysts are comparing its potential impact to the 5G hype we saw with the iPhone 12. Remember how 5G was supposed to change everything? Yeah, let’s hope this AI rollout delivers more than just faster memes.

Analyst Gil Luria from D.A. Davidson isn’t losing sleep over the early numbers. He’s convinced Apple Intelligence is going to make the iPhone 16 the must-have gadget once those AI features start rolling out. According to Luria, “this is like trying to weigh an elephant by a few of its hairs”—the real story hasn’t even begun.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives has gone full throttle, calling this the start of an “AI-driven iPhone supercycle.” He’s got his eye on a potential sales boom that could add 8-10 million units over the iPhone 15. With 300 million iPhones out there just waiting for an upgrade, Ives thinks Apple’s about to spark some serious FOMO with its AI-driven features.

And let’s not forget—Tim Cook is likely to unveil the M4 Pro and Max MacBooks in the coming months, which should give their stagnant laptop sales the shot in the arm they desperately need.

So, should you freak out about Apple stock’s dip this month? Not necessarily. The iPhone 16 launch might feel like a slow start, but Apple has proven to always win in the end.

P.S. Last Thursday, we gave our premium members the heads-up on a stock that blew up 140.45% by market close. If you missed it, well, that's like showing up to the party after all the pizza's gone. But hey, redemption is just around the corner—we’ve got another massive opportunity dropping today at 12 PM ET. Click here to become a premium member, or sit this one out and let everyone else feast while you starve.

Stock.News has positions in Apple.