After Decades of Scrubbing Floors in the Cellar… AT&T Is Finally Dancing at the Ball

AT&T used to be the stock market equivalent of watching grass grow (or, in its case, not grow). From 2001 to 2017, the stock stayed flatter than a Kansas highway. Sixteen years, zero movement. If that doesn’t scream “avoid me,” nothing does. 

Hit that time travel button to present day, and AT&T is finally acting like it got its life together. What’s behind this transformation? Verizon’s little brother finally stopped trying to play dress up as a media mogul (RIP, $150 billion) and decided to go all-in on what the company was founded for in the first place.

Let’s visit the clown show. Back in 2015, AT&T thought it could be a media tycoon. First, it dropped $48.5 billion on DirecTV (a service that was already losing relevance faster than cable TV at the time). Then, because one terrible decision wasn’t enough, it spent over $100 billion on Time Warner in 2018. The result? A bloated monster of a company with more debt than good ideas. By the time AT&T realized it wasn’t winning any Oscars, it was suffocating under $137 billion of debt, and investors were looking at it like, “You good bro?”

The wake-up call came in September when AT&T sold a 70% stake in DirecTV to TPG for $7.6 billion. That cash infusion was CPR-level lifesaving. Finally, AT&T started cleaning up its act, focusing on what it should have been doing all along: dominating the connectivity game.

Now, AT&T is all about connectivity… and this time, they’re serious. The company plans to double its fiber network to hit 50 million locations by 2029 (it’s currently at 28.3 million). That’s 21.7 million more households to stream The Office on repeat while complaining about lag. But it’s not just about expansion… AT&T’s bundled deals on fiber and wireless services are driving subscriber growth that’s borderline shocking (think, “your lazy roommate actually doing the dishes” levels of shocking).

The numbers always tell the story: AT&T expects free cash flow to surpass $18 billion by 2027. Its 2024 earnings per share forecast? Between $2.20 and $2.25, which is solid compared to rivals like T-Mobile, whose 2027 cash flow forecast barely edges them out at $18-19 billion.

Here’s where it gets even more exciting. AT&T plans to return $40 billion to shareholders over the next three years through dividends and buybacks. That $1.11 annual dividend? Locked and loaded, according to CEO John Stankey (how about that name?). So, for all you dividend die-hards, it’s time to relax.

This isn’t the same sluggish AT&T you used to know. Sure, its debt is still a bit chunky compared to Verizon’s, but dropping the media deadweight and doubling down on connectivity has turned this once-stale company into a lean, mean fiber machine.

PS: Black Friday may be over, but we’re still feeling generous… and by generous, I mean our marketing team forgot to turn off the sale.

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Stock.News has positions in AT&T and Verizon.